Long-form analyses originally posted to the Telegram channel, archived here in browser-readable form.
What Danny Citrinowicz, John Mearsheimer, and Behnam Ben Taleblu — three analysts with very different instincts — imply about the odds of a real U.S.–Iran settlement.
What Islamabad will, and will not, produce — and why the real test is Lebanon and Hormuz, not the centrifuges.
Thirty-eight days of operational data show Iran's short-range missile campaign sustaining well above 20 launches per day — a resurgence the “90% destroyed” narrative cannot explain.
Will Trump carry out “Power Plant Day” in Iran? A tracker-weighted analysis of the April 5 ultimatum and the most likely U.S. escalation rung between April 7 and April 14.
Probabilities of deliberate kinetic strikes on Iranian energy, power, and water infrastructure by September 30, 2026 — the cross-ideological panel converges on 87%.
Five resolvable questions about the 2026 Iran war — ceasefire, U.S. ground forces, Hormuz transits, $150 Brent, regime survival — scored across a 64-expert accuracy-weighted panel.
A Bayesian aggregation of expert forecasts, weighted by historical prediction accuracy, on both the strategic outcome and near-term trajectory of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran war.
Twenty-five days of Iranian ordnance expenditure, Strait of Hormuz ship attacks, and energy-market impact — drawn exclusively from target-country defence ministries and open-source compilations.
Bayesian accuracy scoring across 64 analysts and 501 geopolitical forecasts — every prediction falsifiable, dual-cited, and scored against what actually happened.
Every confirmed official count of Iranian missiles and drones launched at each target country, for each day of the conflict — built exclusively from Ministry of Defence statements and open-source compilations.
How nineteen days of escalation in Iran have set five distinct political tripwires — and what happens when each one breaks.
Day 19 crossed a threshold widely predicted and universally feared: the conflict shifted from military-only targeting to energy infrastructure, and Catastrophe crossed 50% for the first time.
U.S. and Israeli forces struck South Pars — the world's largest natural gas field — sending Brent to $109.75 as Iran named specific Gulf energy facilities for retaliation.
Iran's top operational leader killed, Israel opens a second front in Lebanon, and Catastrophe becomes the modal scenario for the first time.
A binary probabilistic assessment of whether American soldiers will set foot inside Iran during Operation Epic Fury — three independent evidence lines converge at roughly 19%.
Almost certainly not — a 13-expert Bayesian panel puts the probability at ~3.1%, with a 90% credible interval of [0.5%, 9.0%].
Both sides dig in: Trump threatens to cancel the Xi summit, Iran declares on U.S. television that it never asked for a ceasefire, and the IDF confirms three more weeks of strikes.
Off-ramp probability collapses — Trump threatening to delay the Xi summit, Iran denying it ever asked for ceasefire, and the IDF confirming three more weeks of strikes.
The war's most dangerous week begins: a threat to Dubai's port, a bombed oil hub, and a White House insider calling for exit. U.S. gasoline is ~6 days from the $4.00 political red line.
The U.S. strikes Iran's oil export island but spares the crude — and explicitly threatens to destroy it if Hormuz stays closed; Iran threatens Dubai's port in response.
Week two, no clear exit — oil above $100, a new Supreme Leader ordering Hormuz kept closed, and the top-accuracy analysts now putting catastrophic escalation at parity with stalemate.
Two weeks in, Iran has not collapsed — oil above $100, Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered Hormuz kept closed, and catastrophic escalation is now roughly at parity with stalemate.
Mines in the Strait of Hormuz turn a threat-based blockade into a physics-based one — Catastrophe reaches parity with Quagmire for the first time in 13 days.
Three qualitative escalations in 24 hours: confirmed mines in Hormuz, a cabinet tanker hoax retracted within thirty minutes, and a record IEA release that markets shrugged off.
The Quick Win is effectively gone — Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed as Supreme Leader, oil past $100, and the economic clock now running faster than either military attrition clock.
A 15-expert panel — dovish, hawkish, and independent — scored across 113 past predictions and aggregated with 100,000 Monte Carlo draws; consensus still points to prolonged quagmire.
Fourteen Iran specialists, seventy-six scored predictions back to 2006, and an accuracy-weighted, correlation-corrected consensus over ten candidate outcomes.
We scored 113 predictions by 15 foreign-policy experts — hawks and doves alike — to build a data-driven forecast of the U.S.–Iran conflict.