A prediction ledger on geopolitics, markets, and conflict — forecasts with sources, scoring, and receipts.
* from the Mixture of Experts dataset
Unmitigated Wisdom began in 2020 as an independent, insight-driven forecasting channel — a private record of falsifiable claims about the parts of the world most liable to break: great-power conflict, energy markets, nuclear thresholds, proxy wars, and the quiet structural trends underneath them. Over time it has grown into a mixture of original insight-based calls and formal expert-aggregation modelling (Bayesian scenario models, ordnance trackers, accuracy backtests).
Every post is a claim someone could be wrong about. Every claim is dated, sourced, and eventually scored. The point isn't cleverness; it's accountability — a public track record kept in the open.
The Unmitigated Wisdom ledger itself — every forecast made on the channel since 2020, threaded with follow-ups, resolutions, and scoring. Insight-based calls and model-driven ones, side by side.
Read the ledger →Bayesian accuracy scoring across 64 outside analysts and 501 of their predictions, with dual-source citations and debiasing. Used as an input to our own modelling.
Browse the dataset →Assessments, scenario models, and methodology notes — written up in full, with the math and the sources visible.
Read →Long-form analyses — daily ordnance trackers, Bayesian scenario models, nuclear-threshold assessments — archived in browser-readable form.
Browse the reports →The Telegram channel is the primary feed. Cross-posts and discussion are rolling out across other platforms.