Unmitigated Wisdom
ground truth → forecasting the future
A prediction ledger on geopolitics, markets, and conflict — forecasts with sources, scoring, and receipts.
From the ledger
A handful of contrarian calls — and a few we got wrong. Browse the full ledger for sources, audit threads, and verdicts on every entry.
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Crypto correction at the peak
When Bitcoin was near $50k and analysts were calling $250k by year-end, this called a peak-to-trough drawdown of at least 30% within 3–9 months and a new ATH thereafter. BTC fell ~50% by July 2021, then rallied to a fresh ATH of ~$69k that November.
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The JCPOA was never coming back
When Biden's team was actively negotiating in Vienna and the consensus expected a return to the Iran nuclear deal, this called no US–Iran agreement during his term. None was reached by 20 January 2025.
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April 7–14: the rung was postponement, not energy strikes
At peak war-escalation panic — Trump's “Power Plant Day” ultimatum on the table — this called Rung D (no new civilian-infrastructure strikes) as the modal outcome at 48%. The window resolved with the Pakistan-mediated US–Iran ceasefire on 8 April.
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Trump would lose 2024 — primary or general
Anchored on his Russia stance becoming a focal point, this predicted Trump would either be denied the nomination or beaten in the general. He won both, decisively.
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Harris would pick Shapiro for VP
Picked Pennsylvania's governor as the most likely VP nominee on swing-state and demographic grounds. She picked Tim Walz instead.
Latest reports
Long-form analyses, freshest first.
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Ceasefire Is Not Peace
What Danny Citrinowicz, John Mearsheimer, and Behnam Ben Taleblu — three analysts with very different instincts — imply about the odds of a real US–Iran settlement.
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Bargaining in the Shadow of a Ceasefire
What Islamabad will, and will not, produce — and why the real test is Lebanon and Hormuz, not the centrifuges.
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The Missile That Wasn't Destroyed
Thirty-eight days of operational data show Iran's short-range missile campaign sustaining well above 20 launches per day — a resurgence the “90% destroyed” narrative cannot explain.